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Is the monopoly safe, is it set in the law that it will operate forevermore? No, it’s under constant evaluation, Petra explains: “The Dutch state, represented by the Ministry of Finance, is our shareholder and they evaluate every seven years, not only us as Holland Casino, but all state-owned companies.”

One of the operator’s most significant challenges is the increase in gambling tax enforced over recent years. Petra has been particularly vocal about this and the company’s profitability has taken a reasonable hit, since the first tax increase to 34.2% of GGR came into effect on 1 January 2025.

Holland Casino now pays 37.8% of GGR to the state, as per the additional increase in 2026, but with labour tax on top the business pays around 52% before they can look at their base running costs. It is not a small burden by any stretch of the imagination, so it is heartening to see the business doing well despite the tightening tax burden.

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For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.

Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.

But what has changed is what shareholders want those companies to prove – and the price they are willing to pay for that proof.

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“Japan is acting cautiously, after observing missteps from other jurisdictions. They are proceeding in the way that best suits them,” she adds.

The factor that led some operators to drop out of the licensing race could be the “uncertainty” created by regulations that “didn’t seem set in stone”, says Leckert.

“Some of them [investors] that were looking at Japan were looking at a big IR licence or nothing. With Tokyo and Yokohama being out of the mix, maybe some weren’t as interested anymore and decided to sit back, and wait and see how regulation and licensing shake out.”